Great conversation. Thanks guys. The cash settled part of this is a big deal since it means that buying and selling a future is really just a bet on what happens with the actual price of Bitcoin on the exchanges. So it won't be the driver of price but instead will react to it.
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Thanks dm....that's a really good point....the only thing im worried about is ways around this such as large institutions or hedge funds are able to buy large quantities of BTC on the OTC market...so this is a way to get around this..i may be wrong on this so any feedback from others is appreciated...it will be interesting to see...but EW is a great tool to use to perhaps see it before it happens..this is why haejin is cool as a cucumber in his videos...lol
I agree completely on the manipulation in the futures market. It's how they keep the Gold/Silver price down even though we all know that inflation is way higher than 1% or whatever number is being claimed.
A large holder of BTC could use the futures market to make a short bet since they have the actual coin which would cover their ass if they were wrong. If they are correct, then they profit from their short.
I still don't see this type of action pushing around the REAL price of BTC. Let's see what transpires.
in my mind the way it will happen is due to major major players coming in...these guys on wall street put the whales in this game to shame...what they will do is buy shorts as a hedge and then buy tens of millions of dollars worth of BTC..when they are happy with the returns they will dump them...these types of dumps will be like nothing we have seen before..then they will keep their shorts and profit on the way down...then on top of that the HFT algos will chew up the weak and inexperienced...it will be interesting to see what happens..but! i think we will have a massive rally after they buy their hedges..we just gotta follow the waves and haejin's expertise of course to try and get out before the blood bath...great conversation guys..cheers and good luck to all