I look at the situation from the perspective of the technical analysis and I see, that everything is normal.
I agree with John Dow, who told 100 years ago: "Everything there is to know is already reflected in the markets through the price". The risks and fears, FOMOs and FUDs all reflected on the chart. Massive must be followed by the massive correction and for me, it makes no difference, what is the reason of the fall: Tehter, regulations... no matter. Chart shows everything.
Here is the image of the Elliott Wave structure:
Here is the corrective phase (after the peak of $20 000)
And here is the wave C from the A-B-C correciton (I have posted it few hour ago):
What I want to say is that x10 growth per yearis something extraordinary for the markets, but same rules apply to correct the growth and something "extraordinary" is required to balance. I feel calm.
Thank you for the great content, @cryptovestor! Always waiting for your videos!
Agree, I always land at 7600 with my calculations... that may no happen but there must be a reason for that level, last not least that many big investors (institutions) also analyze like this and place their bets there... they follow exactly these market rules, which is why they are so reliable. I just posted earlier years' winter corrections somewhere above or below here. No reason to get excited.
So:
Bitcoin just fell to 7600 where a pocket of buy orders awaited it, and bounced in three perfect Elliott Waves, which are ow correcting.
How hard can it be ?
Great! Glad to see some detailed Elliott wave work. You just need to put some Fib retracements from the beginning of the rise last year or before to the top. That C wave will end somewhere between 61.8% and 78.4% of that entire move up. We need to see an exhaustion sell off, where just about everyone in Bitcoin now hates it and wants out. That’s your buying time. I guess it’s around $4,000 but I don’t have the charting package and tools to check it any longer. I don’t trade full time now.
Could you suggest a good source to learn how to apply Elliott wave?
"Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior" by Robert R Prechter is the good one.
Here I give an example of the correction pattern on the Bitcoin chart: click here