I really like the Fib. Indicator and we have a lot of proves that this number always verify with the reality... So I think that BTC might go below 6K for a very small period of time and then we are looking good to get our next high of all time.
I think that our conviction that this Technology will change the world is making our predictions a little bit greedy... But as you said, "60% probability" of only going up from now on. I like those odds, but we can't ignore the other 40%.