🩸When blood spills on the stock exchanges, no one has a question: why are the indices falling, oil and currencies of developing countries, including the ruble, cheaper. By the way, yesterday America for the first time in history forcibly closed in the foot of minus 7% for the second time in a row in 1 week.
📉 Index Mosbirzi -8.3%
📉 Index RTS -11%
📉Brent -8.6%
📉Dollar + 2.5%
❓And that's why the cryptocurrency market has gone into a deep peak - the answer is not obvious. Meanwhile, yesterday evening BTC minus 24%, at the moment - $ 5670. Ether - minus 30%.
✍🏻 I have not written on this topic for a long time, but dramatic processes are also taking place in this area. And the questions coming to the PM prompt me to look in this direction, although I look at the market exceptionally long-term.
🤷♀ Bitcoin seems to be an alternative asset that weakly depends on the fundamental indicators of the economy and financial system. Among the commentators of the events, there are those who are ready to attribute the cue ball to the category of protective assets: they say, when the fund has a fire, there is room for adding free funds - in anticipation of what works in antiphase. They compare the crypto with digital gold (it is now, by the way, also being adjusted downward, contrary to the usual logic). As you can see, bitcoin is doing poorly with the “protective” function.
🔎 In searching for guesses, I went over the possible reasons. Until the next significant event - halving - another 2 months (halving is a 2-fold reduction in the size of remuneration to miners for adding a new block). Why is the cue ball flying so fast right now? It can be assumed that this is due to the cancellation of a number of crypto-investor forums scheduled for March-April due to the WHO pandemic of the virus. But it hardly works like that.
👉🏻 The hypothesis is that with such rapid falls as now, local but acute problems with liquidity may arise. Margin calls, which are now a real problem for traders overweight, are forcing urgently to seek funds. One of the affected donors for forced closure of transactions could be investments in cryptocurrencies. I repeat, this is only a version, this market is poorly amenable to fundamental analysis.