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RE: Quantum Doom for Crypto? It’s all FUD and here’s why

in #bitcoin7 years ago

I think that Bruce Schneier is a competent authority on this subject (source: https://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/1145/how-much-would-it-cost-in-u-s-dollars-to-brute-force-a-256-bit-key-in-a-year/1148):

One of the consequences of the second law of thermodynamics is that a certain amount of energy is necessary to represent information. To record a single bit by changing the state of a system requires an amount of energy no less than kTkT, where TT is the absolute temperature of the system and kk is the Boltzman constant. (Stick with me; the physics lesson is almost over.)

Given that k=1.38⋅10−16erg/∘Kelvink=1.38⋅10−16erg/∘Kelvin, and that the ambient temperature of the universe is 3.2∘K3.2∘K, an ideal computer running at 3.2∘K3.2∘K would consume 4.4⋅10−164.4⋅10−16 ergs every time it set or cleared a bit. To run a computer any colder than the cosmic background radiation would require extra energy to run a heat pump.

Now, the annual energy output of our sun is about 1.21⋅10411.21⋅1041 ergs. This is enough to power about 2.7⋅10562.7⋅1056 single bit changes on our ideal computer; enough state changes to put a 187-bit counter through all its values. If we built a Dyson sphere around the sun and captured all of its energy for 32 years, without any loss, we could power a computer to count up to 21922192. Of course, it wouldn’t have the energy left over to perform any useful calculations with this counter.

But that’s just one star, and a measly one at that. A typical supernova releases something like 10511051 ergs. (About a hundred times as much energy would be released in the form of neutrinos, but let them go for now.) If all of this energy could be channeled into a single orgy of computation, a 219-bit counter could be cycled through all of its states.

These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.


There are clear physical limitations that prevent quantum computers from breaking encryption. I think that given the above information, we can feel reasonable secure in cryptocurrencies with regard to encryption methods. With the sorry state of custody at exchanges, perhaps not so much.