Your likely scenarios for price include:
- it goes up a bunch
- it stays flat
- it goes down a bunch
I'd have to say your scenario is 100% correct.
The price will do one of the three things you predicted as a 100% guarantee.
But so what ...... ?
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The point is I give RANGES. You want to know what is possible... Bitcoin is not going to drop to $3K or jump up to $5K overnight. Also a lot of times my scenarios overlap.