If you go back and try to do an analysis of any potential for success with haejin's recommendation it would be a crap shoot. Alt coins have been trending up for 6 months and up sharply for the last month.
The famous quote is "With a strong enough tail wind, even a turkey can fly"
That is the current world of cryptos, for the last 3 months. It doesn't matter a lot what you bought.
Buy and hold a weighted average of the top 30 coins from CMC and you would be up 500% in the last 3 months.
So when Haejin reports, buy, buy, buy. It may look like genius recommendations to an untrained eye.
Reality is let me give you a better recommendation - buy and hold a weighted average of the top 30 coins, rebalance every 2 weeks so you sell some of the recent big gainers, and buy more of the losers, in the top 30 mix, and you will make out fine.
Not nearly as exciting though as 5 posts every hour with new buy recommendations.
Grea explanation. Reminds me of the book Fooled By Randomness, by Nassim Taleb.
My admiration will go to the person predicting the timing and the magnitude of the bubble' s burst (which would, in turn, remind me of the book The Big Short by Michael Lewis)
Thing is friend, @haejin has been saying for months that 'an altcoin symphony' is in the making - That is, even months before they actually started going up. He has been calling the market trend bullish at times when fear of a crash was dominant and has been proven right. So your argument is very valid, any bullish prediction of a top 50 coin has come through - since November. It is however not relevant, as the predictions have started in June/July, at a moment were most top 50 coins were bleeding hard. He stuck with them for months and now they ring true.
To connect with your analogy:
Any turkey that can accurately predict a tail wind strong enough to fly on, has the capacity to create an environment where it can fly.