Bitcoin consolidated for a little while at around $13,750 after I released my video originally setting a $17,000 sell target for Bitcoin. I originally determined this price target as there is substantial resistance at that price level and Bitcoin had little support under it given the quick fall to $10,500 and rapid recovery back up to $16,500. A muted hype is beginning to build for the return of the Segwit2x hard fork.
Now that Bitcoin has had some time consolidating at $13,750, that support level has become stronger which reduces risk. Given this, while I still plan to sell some Bitcoin at approximately $17,000 if we see it shoot up to there from here, it will be significantly less than I intended to sell back when I originally made the video.
Furthermore, in an ideal world where we see Bitcoin consolidate a little longer around low $15,000s, that will build a solid support closer to Bitcoin's price and I will take out my limit order entirely. When Bitcoin grows in a step-like fashion, there is more support under the market which I prefer over it rocketing straight up (and hence is why I am hesitant buying it at all time highs or after it increases 30% in a day).
SegWit2x hard fork is anticipated to occur on December 28th at block 501451. Given this, I will be moving all the Bitcoin I have on exchanges to my hardware wallet prior to the snapshot. If price accelerates to $17,000 at that time, I will not sell any as I obviously won't have any on exchanges.
The reason I am interested in acquiring this hard forked currency is NOT because I think it is worth anything. It's just stealing the name of SegWit2x to make people it is worth something, when in reality it's a completely different vision for Bitcoin that will likely flunk altogether. However, Bitcoin Gold has illustrated to me that even complete failures (forgive me, those of you who are invested) can be given high market valuations, so I'm interested in picking it up regardless.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin & the upcoming hard fork? Let me know in the comments below and thanks for watching / reading!
What are your thoughts for Bitcoin in the future?
A - Could it be considered as the medium of valuation for crypto currencies, where all other crypto currencies are compared to a Bitcoin. Same as you see now with the dollar $ (Gold $ to $, Oil price to $, etc).
When the market becomes more balanced, you might have crypto currencies being more expensive than Bitcoin, but because Bitcoin has been longer in circulation, it will always be the dominant currency that other crypto currencies are evaluated to.
Or B -
Bitcoin is the old, a person need to prepare for the more advanced block chains and tangles?
I have had my doubts about Bitcoin, but the support and development towards crypto currencies have been implemented to a point where you can not just take it away, worldwide.
Seeing as you not consider selling your Bitcoin but keeping it, there must be a reason for your decision.
I do believe that the market will balance (I think it will look like a crash), where the amount of crypto currencies will be reduced to only the strongest few. Which will be good, because it almost seems like an explosion of start-up crypto platforms, and some are very over-valued.
That is my question to you and personal point of view looking at the logic of things. I am still new to Crypto currency and your channel has helped me a lot to understand it better. Please correct me if my point of view is completely wrong.
I don't have time to get an offline wallet.
What's plan B?
exodus.io
As long as you control your private keys, it doesn't matter - you just need to be able to import those private keys into a wallet that will support it afterwards. However, I haven't seen a single one yet that has claimed support for this version of Segwit2x so likely just going to be a dud. I wouldn't bother if you don't have a substantial amount of Bitcoin to cover the cost it takes to move it to an appropriate location.
I put my bitcoin in several paper wallets.
I've been paranoid about money since 9/11 and do goofy things.
Thanks for the feedback.
FYI here is a pretty good article about private keys and ways to store them.
https://coinsutra.com/bitcoin-private-key/
I'm curious, why did you choose to use a hardware wallet over a paper one or a desktop wallet? Obviously, a desktop is less secure but a paper one sounds super secure. The USB scares me because I've had so many of them die on me over the years.
BTW, Segwits site now has a video on it that's so outrageous it's funny.
It's hard to find a clear answer especially since a lot of news is from before the second announcement on Dec 26th (still looking). Please reply if you have any other info.
I think hardware is the best option but some exchanges may support the fork. This is a list of exchanges from October which might give some minor indication but don't count on it. At first glance, I don't see any that have made a more recent official announcement.
WARNING THIS LIST IS NOT ACCURATE ANYMORE
https://blog.coinigy.com/2017/10/comprehensive-list-of-exchange-segwit2x-stances/
I've seen others recommending Binance and Bittrex because they are generally good at this but I don't see any official announcements.
Other Sources:
SegWit2x has a list of exchanges on the home page, I haven't heard of any of them.
B2X Official Site FAQs: http://b2x-segwit.io/faq/
B2X Futures Trading (probably not recommended): https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=59e74ee59e961
Great video. What do you think about the claims that 1 BTC will reach 1 mil. USD by 2020?
https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-surges-to-16500-1-million-by-the-end-of-2020/
I think they're wishful thinking and pandering to hype, but I guess I would have said the same about $20k by the end of this year.
As much as you say that RSI doesn't hint towards the overall trend of the market, as someone who watches this very closely, I would say it does.
First off I would like to say that on a fundamental level, RSI as well as any other indicator for anyone new who's reading this only gives a possible direction that the market would go in not a concrete one. This means that regardless of how bullish/overbought a market is or bearish/oversold a market is, markets can still push to the upside as well as the downside respectively despite its indication towards the opposite conclusion as this video mentions. BUT even though the market doesn't do what we expect it to do on an intuitive sense, the RSI still does reflect market behavior i.e. if the market is overbought, the RSI drops a bit but then shoots back up to reflect the continued bullish activity which we predicted not to happen. The opposite is true for oversold markets. This concept continues on further even if the market meets our expected predictions for RSI despite the video saying that it doesn't. If one looks closely regardless of when you see the RSI drop or increase, it's always correlated with the general DIRECTION that the market is heading in. The key word here is direction and not MAGNITUDE. Whenever the RSI drops, that doesn't mean that the market will drop a substantial amount nor does it mean that whenever RSI increase, the market will increase a substantial amount. This is the point that I think is missing from your video. That despite predictions of the market increasing or decreasing dramatically based off of RSI predictions not being true for what we see in Bitcoin, we still DO see a correlated directionality no matter which time frame youre looking at.
Hey CI, love your posts and videos.
Maybe you can answer a question for me. Other than as a currency and as speculation , what are we buying when we buy a crypto currency? I hear a lot of statements like "Company X is setting up an infrastructure system with a crypto that is revolutionary," but wouldn't I buy the stock of the company if I want returns on their revolutionary system?
Take for example gold and Ripple. If I buy gold, I might demand it as a currency (store of value), as a speculative buy, or even as a metal. If someone wants my gold to make jewelry, they have to buy it from me. If I buy Ripple, it could act as currency if valued by others, it could act as a speculative bid, but I don't see how it acts as value within inter-bank lending and account balancing? The reason: If individuals were to buy enough Ripple to take too much liquidity out of the banking system, they could just start a new block chain with the same technology and call it Ripple2 or Rapple or something else. There would be two technologically identical blockchains ... one used for interbank trading and one on which individuals could speculate and hold "currency."
Wouldn't it work this way for most crypto-currencies? We're not really obtaining value of the technology, but just the quality of the currency from that technology. This would point to there being 3-4 long term players that survive this nascent industry.
It'd be easy to say this hard fork is bizarre and lacking a lot of clarity but the same can be said when BCH was forking in my opinion.
I'm going to try and go for a bizarre option of buying in and out on gdax for the snapshot in the knowledge that Coinbase will hodl my B2X and will release my funds if it becomes worth something. I don't think any Coinbase users can complain about getting BCH 3 months later when they finally released funds up at $3k.
After the BTG fork where BTC lost 10% of it's value prior to the snapshot I'm not going to be buying in to transfer to a desktop/hardware wallet paying upto $100 for two transfers, as well as potential losses from fork fears for a currency that might be worth nothing.
Overall I'm still waiting for BTC to close above the current resistance level before buying back in to stay in. Buying in for B2X is not only a risky move, it's also not necessary.
You'd be better off buying into futures if you're that eager.
Great video as usual. Long-term viewer here. Since you seem to be active here, let me ask you here.
I have been playing with Elliot waves recently, and found them to have a decent predicative power in trending crypto markets. After doing some analysis on the post-September run-up of BTC, I found that this could be part of an ABC retracement that goes all the way down to 8000$. From the technical perspective, there is nothing that precludes BTC from going further down (the indicators seem prime for a lower move, too).
This is my "no panic" level. Lower than that, and I would start fidgeting. What are your thoughts on that?
Elliott Waves predict human market trading psychology.
Obviously, nobody is interested in bitcoin going down and expiring, bulls turn bears just to sell high then buy at a low price and drive it up again. It makes no psychological sense that bitcoin would be going down below 15k now - or if then only very briefly before shooting up again. It was nice to go down to 11 from 19 but right now ? I mean I don't care, I'm more of a day trader with every new day... but it's generally easier to trade an uptrending market, so everybody is interested in bitcoin moving steadily up so they can play their games.
Update - well once again, the weak hands have all decided to bugger off again, and so I hope bitcoin will fall to 4000 before more serious people come back from holiday ;)
I saw a transaction average of $1100 today, so this is what we have, millions of small investors who will run a the first flea bite. This means what with Wall Street joining in next yea, volatility will be INCREDIBLE, and losses of small investors magnificent, hodling through may become a dangerous tactic if not sustainable over at least 3 months or so, with the possibility of success reserved for those who can spend 18 hours online on a regular basis. I'm game.
I don't use Elliot Wave analysis, so I don't have much to offer you other than to say $8,000 was the same level I came up with, just different means, in terms of being the lowest I'd be comfortable with.
You mentioned how you are going to take advantage of the upcoming hard fork of the "Segwit2X" imposters. It would be really nice, if you'd make a step-by-step like video on how to claim forked coins and what potential risks are involved at which step and how to possibly eliminate those risks when claiming forked coins alltogether. Even if the guide would only work for this particular coin, it would be nice to learn the gist of these mechanics.
Interesting post. What do you think about the possibility that a correction is still on the way ? I'm new to chart analysis but maybe the consolidation we see at the moment is just a 'pause' before another 'crash' till like 10k$ or 8k$ ? Do you think it will be a good buying opportunity ? BTC have huge variance and I won't be surprised if january bring us to 8k$ then to 20-30k$ then back to 15k$ again ...the real question in the coming 2 months will be have I to hodl or trade this dime lol
Anyway the forks are coming and bitcoin will have to change in a way or another, the more obvious that have to be implemented are lightning network + bigger blocks(to fight BCH). Then smart contracts to fight ETH of course and maybe some SegWit if there is time for that. I'm not a BTC fanboy, just realistic in the way BTC has to change to stay number 1, my favorite coins that I use and hodl is still LTC :-). All these forks will bring huge variance in the prices, and also make a lot of news, even in the mainstream media, that will also take a lot of money so variance in the prices. 2018 will be a crazy year for cryptos.
You underestimate the power of the bull crypto investor
It's because I don't underestimate it that I have any money in this market at all.
great update of the price... I really like your explanations on the supports and resistance levels, is very helpful
Couldn't agree more. It's rare to hear such concepts explained so simply yet so thoroughly :)
What the fork?!
Great video as always.
Just one question, since this version of segwit2x isn't even remotely the same as the previous one, isn't the futures market for the old segwit2x coin not applicable for this particular coin?
The real "free money" is being made by the miners in transaction fees everytime one of these hard forks occurs. I wonder how much collusion is going on behind the scenes. Be sure of this: they will spam the BTC mempool when the hardfork occurs to reap a guaranteed bonanza
If I understand correctly, people are irrational and are currently looking to make money fast. Even if this new 'bitcoin' has no future people are going to get in any way. Even if the name is just for show, there is still going to be people who are coming in with little to no knowledge who believe it will be worth something.
They want their free money. and if bitcoin gold has shown anything, some will get it.
I thought the same, and I haven't looked into this too much so I can't say for certain, but it sounds / seems like the guys behind this version of Segwit2x (which again, really isn't S2X) set up futures on the 19th (which so happens to be when prices spiked). I don't bother with those futures though and they usually aren't that useful. Just interesting to look at, but tend to overinflate prices.
Cheers. I couldn't even wrap my head around why people were still trading futures after the cancellation, so this latest development is basically making less and less sense to me.
Great vid! Btw any idea what's going on with Bitconnect ? I can't believe my eyes, it's like 90% up over last 24 hours. Any ideas on why is that happening ?
Thanks o/
Because people are dumb enough to believe their hype, or ratty enough to think they can still earn with the scheme and get out just before it goes bust.
Crypto is an irrational market, mostly amateurs here. I myself got into this in October.
I believe the exchange was down for a while and came back, hence the pump.
I have had a bitcoin on a paper wallet since July. It would be dope to see a video explaining how to redeem forked coins, like I don't even know how many forks there have been since then. I haven't found any good source for this, like a true step by step process. Might get decent views.
There are a few guides out there, but is a good idea. Might do that at some point.
I personally have no idea why these people decided to change the Segwit2x, seems like a really dumb idea and a quick cash grab...
The uselessness and stupidity behind this watered down psuedo-2X hard fork is the most important part of this video, thanks for laying that out for us. As far as the $17k sell point, I figured you'd scale back that position given time to see the slow climb upward with solidity, if not reconsider altogether.
I also moved my BTC around so I could get the B2X tokens, hopefully they will be worth something because the price crashed badly today... you think it will recover?
By the way, I've been following you on YouTube for a while now and I think this is a much better channel for communication. Thanks for the great analysis as always.
Fantastic analysis.
Thanks for not just letting your ego take hold of you like some other TAs who seem to be becoming-- bitcoin shills. I appreciate the objectiveness. And I appreciate your thining-- taking into account this crazy market, the psychology, the short and long term history and fitting that into realistic TA.
I am not quite as disciplined as you but it's really reassuring to see someone so structured, and analytical (in every sense of the word) in a crazy and fun market. I've become completely obsessed with the crypto market. I also just love that your ego isn't so inflated, that it clouds vision, like a lot of posters.
I appreciate you! and happy new year!
Hi, thanks for the video. Can you please explain what actually provides the support on a certain value? you mentioned that the support is currently at 13.5K USD, but what should actually happen in the economy for the support figure to rise? I would really much appreciate the simplest possible explanation. thanks
Let me illustrate what @cryptoinvestor just said, there's the 13500 level below and the 16000 level above, and there's the trading channel, a general upward trend (see mint lines) - since the fear-and-loathing pre-Christmas scenario is over, we've been hovering around the lower border of the old trading channel, and now we're trying to bust through the 16k and then the upper border, which is a double resistance in this case - see how it literally CRAWLS there ?
Wewill eventually crack it... I luckily decided to exchange half my bitcoin for ripple before I went shopping today... whoa... excuse me, that was lucky, just saw ripple had gone straight up and logged into kraken to sell, as it will be dropping a bit now... so yeah, let's see if we can finally break that 16 k bitcoin level for good later today and head towards 21k or so, which I expect.
Ripple looks as if it's going up even more but I never take a risk that I can avoid ;)
In the most simple terms, the more times an asset closes or hovers around a certain price, the more critical that price level becomes. When price later exceeds that level, then it provides support. If price is later below that level, then it provides resistance. So given Bitcoin traded around $13.75k or so for a while, now that level acts as support (meaning if price comes down, people will be tempted to buy at that level).
What do I risk if I leave my crypto on Coinbase or gdax?
The risk is of somebody hacking GDAX as it happened with Mt.Gox in 2014. If you do not trade daily, transfer the crypto to your software wallet (that could also be hacked on your mobile phone as McAfee warned), or better yet place it to your hardware wallet.
You will not get the same amount of the new coin instantly after the segwit2x.
Yup, I don't keep money of any kind, be it fiat or crypto, on the exchanges any longer than I need it for trading/settlement of funds.
That's good to know. I don't keep any more money in the bank than I have to. I don't trust the banks.
But, if I have my crypto in an offline wallet I will?
Yes, that's the point.
Perused your real-crypto.com site. Found Encyclopedia of chart patterns which is exactly what I am looking for. After looking at several patterns last night, my mind is boggled this AM. So if BTC gets more price support, does that imply higher bounces in price?
Are we still in the head and shoulders pattern?
Are you an instructor for crypto courses?
Not sure if you are saying the site is mine since I have none, or if there isn't meant to be a space and it is part of the domain name (too lazy to check now). I'm not the person to ask about TA - I don't use most of it, hence why my videos are so simple and don't even go beyond GDAX. I am not an instructor at this point in time, but I take it as a compliment from you to ask. Thank you.
Love the content on youtube always, a voice of reason amidst much FUD and FOMO. Can someone tell me what the distribution will be? 1:1? Thanks
Another great video! I really enjoy your content and the insight that you provide. Keep it up!
Another great video as always. Have you ever thought of starting a discord channel? I could see it as a good way to grow community.
I watch datadash to make money and I watch cryptovestor so that I dont lose money. He keeps us on our toes.
Thanks for the well timed update. You mentioned some indicators do not carry over well here from trading the stock market. Which ones do you prefer to use in crypto markets?
What are thoughts on Raiblocks XRB? Suddenly I feel like a lot of people are talking about it and it also rose a lot yesterday. And one more thing What is RSI?
Relative Strength Index: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp
There's obviously a visible marketing effort for it on youtube, and here ;)
Its bubble from 10 bucks all the way to its real value in millions. .....Bubble that will never burst because it will reach the size of a fuckin atmosphere.
Humanity is a bubble
Thanks for the nice video again. I just have one question for you. Aren't you worried that there is so much media hype about bitcoin and crypto currencies in general and soon that will cause some economic crisis. I am just seeing people selling out their stocks from traditional markets and investing their lifetime savings into bitcoin. I could be wrong but I started to feel that the stock price of industries other than cryptos will soon drop and companies will soon face financial problem (might even collapse in the worst scenarios).
If my memory serves me well, cryptovestor did mention that crypto savings would pretty much be the first thing to go. perhaps it was someone else, who said this, i've been watching so many youtube videos, but the idea of the video was if the economy turns to shit, people won't sell their houses or stocks, but rather crypto first
I don't think so - most people who invest in stocks don't pull out of them just because there is another asset class doing well. It'll attract some capital, but there won't be a flight to cryptocurrencies especially not while the stock market is doing well too. Keep in mind it takes a special type of mindset to invest in cryptocurrencies which are (at least in my opinion) clearly a bubble and have little intrinsic value so not much determines if they should be twice or half their current price.
Hey Cryptovestor, you always mention, that cryptos are in a bubble and that it is going to pop. But isnt it always a bubble, if the price of an asset is higher than its value? And clearly the value of cryptos is not very high right now, but fundamental investors would bet, that the value is going to raise in the future and eventually meet the price, which represents its value.
If you look at Tesla for example, it is the same bet like in cryptos. Zero return on investment, selling like 50.000 cars a year, but its price is at the same as GM. That is also a bubble, because people are betting on, that Tesla is going to be another big premium carmanufacturer.
"A bubble is an economic cycle characterized by rapid escalation of asset prices followed by a contraction" (Invesopedia). So, we have not seen a (large) contraction, thus is not not a bubble (yet). We would not know if we are in a bubble or in the initial growth of the asset. The same applied to Tesla.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp#ixzz52UmAbHG4
I don't quite understand why you are moving your Bitcoin to your offline wallet during a move to 17000 Satoshis. (Other than because Offline wallets are safe) Why did you emphasis this during the video as something you would do around 17/Hardfork? Perhaps I am missing a small detail that explains this?
It's about controlling your private keys. When you have your coins on an exchange the private keys are at that point in their control. Only when you transfer your coins to an offline wallet, may it be for example Electrum, a Ledger or a paper wallet, THEN you have control of your private keys. And this is the ESSENTIAL requirement to claiming forked coins lateron. I haven't, yet, found out how the exact process of claiming forked coins works, but I know that it only works when you control the private keys of your coins at the time of forking. I hope this helps! :)
Not him, but thanks this was helpful!
I understand there will be a fork tomorrow. I don't have time to get an offline wallet. What is a plan B?
It is not about controlling your private keys, it's about getting the hard forked coins after all. While in GDAX, he does not own the actual bitcoin, but Coinbase does. When he moves BTC out of GDAX (Coinbase), he is in control of his bitcoins and he would own the same amount of the forked coins in the case of hard fork.
Why are you putting your crypto in an offline wallet?
He is putting BTC into his wallet because if he leaves it there, CoinBase owns the bitcoin and he won't have any SegWit2x crypto after hard fork. Andreas Antonopolous explains it here, watch::
Thanks for all of the good information. I wish I had known about you a few days ago. I bought BTC at 15600 thinking it would come back to that level even if it crashed further which it did. Once I saw your previous video I kicked myself since I cold have gotten in a lot lower.
While watching you talk about the segwit2x fork I was wondering if I should transfer my BTC to the nano S and you hit that topic right after. I will definitely be following you for BTC information. Thanks.
I won't move my BTC around just due to another hard fork coming up. Well I don't even own a full coin so it wouldn't be worth it anyways.
Regarding your opinion I agree that a healthy growth is definitely more sustainable than a rocketing one.
I love watching your videos because you always approach Bitcoin from a relatively pessimistic point of view, which is refreshing sometimes. Most people out there with your point of view clearly don't understand crypto currencies which is where their pessimism stems from but your videos are more like a dose of reality after I've spent to much time in my bullish Bitcoin bubble.
On that note, I would never be the one making a meme out of you selling at $17k, on the contrary I totally encourage you and others to secure your profits first. Gamble with the house's money not your own. Keep doing what you're doing!
Being a bitshares guy in general and having taken haven in bitUSD during the storm, I am currently transitioning back to BTC through BTS by way of stop loss on binance. I for one also hope that BTC builds some support before deciding to go running for the skys again. Maybe my BTS can gain some ground on it and and I can buy more xD
Hey, great video. Thanks for putting out so much great content. Just wanted to ask: Why do you put your Bitcoin on a Ledger when the fork comes?
Probably a newb question but I've only been at it a month. Thanks!
Completely agree with your statement about Bitcoin Gold. Crappy development, crappy support. But this joke is still alive!!! WTF?
Heya @cryptovestor, I've recently found your channel and have really been enjoying your videos, thanks for the great transparency.
Regarding your problems with viewing GDAX charts, have a little look at Cryptowat.ch I use it with Kraken for free and find it way more useful. Its clean and slick and will show you much more history.
I dont actually use their premium service, because of it coming free with Kraken but its much better than the god-awful charts of GDAX :)
It wil help your videos for-sure!
https://cryptowat.ch/gdax/btcusd/1h
How do you get rid of snowflakes that are coming down on the charts there? :)
Really enjoying your videos and listening to your thoughts on the cryptosphere. I was wondering if you could provide information - either by a video or just a quick explanation - on how you have learned the tools necessary to provide the analysis you do? Is it through work experience, reading books on technical analysis, mostly messing around in various markets? I am keen to learn more about things such as support/resistance levels, how to spot those, and many of the various indicators that you speak of. I think a video on this could be quite helpful as I know that I need to be more versed with this knowledge - or how to learn more about it - if I want to make more solid trades and moves in the cryptosphere. Thanks!
Re Bitcoin Gold, here's an interesting read http://forklog.net/mybtgwallet-victims-to-sue-bitcoin-gold/
Thanks! Are you still holding Salt?
Weren't you using cryptowatch for your videos for a while? Maybe it was someone else... in any case, that site displays/manipulates way better.
@cryptovestor Thanks for the great videos! I've been watching for a few months now, It's pretty tough to find insightful analysis like yours.
why we should take btc offline?
See the video I posted above answering the same question twice already.
Another great video. What you said about moving Bitcoin off of the exchanges can't be said enough. There's so many YouTubers even outside the crypto space which are using Coinbase referral links, but not educating their viewers on what it means with respect to control over their own money.
Be careful trading on HitBTC!
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@xoorl/many-problems-with-hitbtc-exchange
Thanks for a balanced, nuanced and concise explanation of your thoughts on the BTC hitting $17K level. You carefully explained how you looked at the candles and what they meant to you.
This made me think a bit more about what I would do and how to reinterpret the GDAX graphs..
Thank you and keep up the excellent work.
I really like your posts. In a market highly driven by sentiment I struggle to find anyone who talks about cryptocurrencies in a sensible way. Everybody is going insane about bitcoin, to be more specific bitcoin prices. Less and less people are talking about the technology and philosophy behind cryptocurrencies, all I hear about are prices and the next coin to rise.
Case in point: I recently talked to a guy who is crazy about Factom because of the rise in price and because it's being backed by the [US Dept. of Homeland Security] (https://news.bitcoin.com/dhs-awards-200k-factom/) for IoT security.
Even if I understand the motivation why he would put his money on Factom it baffles me, why he would like to use a system backed by the US DoS.
It's a complete anti-thesis of the philosophy of the technology.