Bitcoin has taken a dive, dipped its toe at $14k and is still treading around $15k at the time of writing this. Many of you have sent me messages and left comments asking if I still see Bitcoin at $23,000 in the cards. While I don't pretend to know what will happen next, the thesis is still in tact for Bitcoin to go on a nice bull stretch as the dominance figure is still in the 30% area.
I still suspect this will increase to 45 - 50% as we see the end of the altcoin cycle. Coindesk had a great article (https://www.coindesk.com/weathering-altcoin-shitstorm-investing-next-one/) which discussed these cycles and how the cryptocurrency market has become a big penny stock casino.
Many people tout that smaller altcoins are better investments than Bitcoin or Ethereum because return potential is far higher, but they almost always disregard risk and probabilities (generally falliciously arguing that the worst that can happen is that your investment goes to $0, but could go to infinity too which completely ignores probability).
Right now, the market is pumping assets indiscriminantly as we see everyone trying to jump into the next spike. Tron is a perfect example of a cryptocurrency that is extremely overvalued and overhyped. Everyone invests because of Justin Sun, who is as silver-tongued as they come. The white paper is obtuse (meaning it struggles to communicate what Tron actually does) and fanatics point out that Tron has a long-term plan, when more realistically it just sounds like they have no product and won't for a long time. How can it fight for the users when it has none? Most of the price is built around hype on a potential partnership with Alibaba because Justin Sun was a "protege" of Jack Ma and poached some talent from the behemoth (likely other greedy individuals who see how wealthy crypto can make them). Take my money!
Don't like what you hear? Well unfortunately this is the case for a lot of cryptocurrencies. This is the time to be selective and find cryptocurrencies which actually have a use-case that is suitable for blockchain (or DAGs), because in the event that the altcoin cycle ends, we'll see "higher quality" altcoins fare better than their hyped brethren.
While I will be the first to tell you Bitcoin is overhyped as well and reality is far from where expectations are now, at least it has substantial community and developer support along with a long, battle-tested history which almost no other cryptocurrency can claim. Perhaps even more importantly, average Joe actually knows what Bitcoin is while most of the general public hasn't even heard the word "cryptocurrency."
All in all, the altcoin cycle will come to an end as it always does. We don't know when that is, but don't be fooled by the idea that superior tech wins. I could rattle off a dozen examples ... Betamax, Dvorak keyboards, Atari, etc. There are many other factors that go into play and Bitcoin has many of those on its side: Expect a video on that in the future.
For now, the important part is that if you want exposure in this market, Bitcoin is the place to be. Oh and a super brief update on Ethereum: I converted more into Bitcoin as we (very) rapidly hit my price target of 0.075 - 0.08 BTC. The rest I will hodl - no further price targets. Thank you for watching and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
I'd love it if you would start uploading to D.Tube
It'd be good since d.tube has 1m SP to give away subsidies to kickstart content creators on it.
I'm usually not a fan of subsidies but if anyone deserve a chunk of it, it's definitely @cryptovestor
Explanation for high upvote
I've thought about it - Unfortunately I can't even view D.Tube on this computer because it is running Windows XP (yes, still in the stone ages) and browser support has died off. I've tried Firefox and Chrome with no luck, although I haven't really made any serious attempts to make the website work as it works fine on my laptop. This is my workstation though. We'll see though. If I do, I won't be posting my YouTube link here on Steemit as well since it feels spammy. I think there might be some people stuck with same issue as I have (last I checked, quite a few people still use XP amazingly), but not ruling it out for future.
Be careful on xp, windows have not released security patches for quite a long time, windows already unsafe as it is. Keep up the great content tho.
My XP updated to Windows 10. I haaaaate Windows 10. I'm so jealous.
I agree, certainly worth testing out.
Tron (Trx) next Jetplane will land over 0.0002000btc $ 1.50
What if BTC might not get back its market dominance? What if the swing cycle bitcoin – altcoins will not repeat any more? Is this possible?
Yahoo used once to totally dominate internet search market. Sergey Brin and Larry Page had offered to sell Google with it's new search algorithms at 5mln$, correct me if I'm wrong with this number. Where is Yahoo now? There are a lot of examples when once totally dominating company lost its position or even went bankrupt. Why this happens? A) The company fails to evolve and improve as per needs of its customers. B) A superior technology or more effective strategy of a competitor.
The main problem of BTC is not slow transactions, high fees or whatever technical flaw there might be. It can be fixed. The problem is difficulty to reach a consensus to improve the tech. All the separate BTC mining pools might be shortsighted in pursuit of today’s profits. They might lack a strategic vision which their rivals do possess. We see quite intensive boiling in the BTC camp. One example is Bitcoin – Bitcoin Cash discussion. This doesn’t add any competitive advantage to BTC.
If other platform will prove to perform better and deliver a better solution for crypto currency, BTC might lose its crown. The significat advantages I see now in BTC are as follows: brand recognition and market share. That’s it.
Being first on a new market is a big deal indeed, but a company must not just passively enjoy it’s market dominance. It’s not forever. We all know prominent BTC advocates who actually do a pretty good job convincing the public that there is only BTC, that it will better than gold and in several years it will cost a billion $. Many people bought this story.
I don’t believe a narrative about $500K or $1 mln per BTC just because it’s # 1 brand, because it’s not inflationary, rare and hard to mine. The whole mining scheme is already obsolete. It’s not necessary at all to spend such enormous amount of energy to provide high level of network security. Proof-of-stake protocol will dominate in crypto in the future. It’s pretty much the same thing as Proof-of-Stake but without wasting of energy. In P-o-W investment is made in hardware in P-o-S investment is made in coins. Both protocols share the same idea that the bigger is your investment (stake) the bigger share in coin harvesting and voting power.
Bankers and institutional investors should prefer to be the trendsetter rather than to go where the crowd leads. They would prefer to invest in a platform from scratch and make it dominant. They have all the fiat money for this. In this case they will benefit much more than just diving into BTC which is currently «ruled» by several Chinese mining cartels.
There is another problem related to BTC growth. New investors know how cheap BTC used to be and they might tend to believe that they are late for BTC and must find other «cheap» coins which have a room to grow to the sky.
The difficulty to realize consensus is the result of being decentralized. I've finished an article now that addresses this and it will result in Bitcoin struggling for the next 2 decades or so likely, but keep in mind that Bitcoin really isn't going to be superior to what exists out there already today. Do you know how many millions of hours Visa, Mastercard, Paypal, Square, and all the banks have put into the existing infrastructure today? Do you know how many more millions of hours they will put in if they feel even REMOTELY threatened? They crush all cryptocurrencies in terms of capital, resources and influence. The ONLY real advantage that cryptocurrencies have is that they are:
You get the point. For the record, open-source development is generally going to be slower due to disagreements over how to proceed. The vision of Bitcoin is that it isn't any single person's vision. I also discuss in my upcoming article that Proof of Work is undoubtedly a problem, but Proof of Stake isn't perfect either. You can combine the two and there are obviously many other consensus algorithms, but here is one area where I think Bitcoin might be screwed as a change to existing consensus algorithm would destroy over a billion dollars worth of mining equipment so... That would DEFINITELY require a user activated fork. User activated forks is Bitcoin's defense against miner dominance.
There is no guarantee that Bitcoin regains its dominance, but altcoins have so many issues right now that it is very likely. Many of them don't have products, some don't even have prototypes and a lot of them are copies of Bitcoin's code with some modifications. These copies of Bitcoin will face issues as well if they ever hit scale and obviously Bitcoin could make these changes too given it's the same code with different inputs. Will it happen? That's a worthwhile question, but it's too soon yet to be certain. I think we are taking a "wait and see" approach.
"The vision of Bitcoin is that it isn't any single person's vision" - that is the real problem with Bitcoin, which is why we have so many forks. Open-source development can be sometimes faster given there is a strong, and intelligent leadership that encourages innovation and cares about users. Forks do happen in open-source software development, but not that many. Linux is innovative and fast moving, it has been only growing in popularity and there is only a single popular fork - Android.
Bitcoin is a joke compared to the alternatives. The sooner its end comes the better for this industry
BetaMax was far better than VHS. It's about adoption, not about the better tech. How are you going to convince people that a $14 coin is better than a $14,000 coin? So things like the lightning network are created.
”It’s pretty much the same thing as Proof-of-Stake”...or Proof-of-Work!?
Great video! I completely agree with you and already started to shift liquidity into BTC and some very selected altcoins. The reason is the correlation of BTC to the whole cryptomarket and the channel of exiting alts through BTC.
When thinking about what can happen there are some scenarios:
The whole cryptoworld sees a huge correction: People are fleeing their alts (because at the end 90% of coin holder actually are in for the money and believe those are shitcoins anyway) into BTC. BTC will tank but alts will bleed like crazy.
Strategy: Be in BTC and fiat.
BTC as Big Daddy wakes up (maybe due to a catalyst such as a big financial instrument (such as ETF) and will go crazy. Altcoins will bleed (at least in BTC-value). Its similar to the month of Octobre 2017.
Strategy: Be in BTC.
Bitcoin will stay in a limited interval but not crash or pump. Altcoins will continue to outperform BTC.
Strategy: Be in altcoins.
That is what is happening since December. However, regarding some ridiculous market caps of complete shitcoins, I suspect that the bubble pops very soon. It will be either through scenario 1 or 2.
In order to position yourself well for the upcoming time you should form an expectancy about the probabilities of the different scenarios. And in that sense scenario 1 + 2 heavily outweigh scenario 3.
Therefore I decided to slowly use some pumps on various alts to shift most most of the funds into BTC (and LTC*) to be positioned for scenario 2 and some funds into Fiat to be prepared for scenario 1. However, I will leave some little exposure to various altcoins I believe in.
It is refreshing to find an individual who has the same opinion about the current market.
*Why LTC? Because LTC correlates with BTC (corr=0.93 in 2017) while actually outperforming it. Also I believe that catalyst such as Lightning will first happen on LTC. However, most funds will still be in BTC.
Thank you for your thoughts salty, best of luck with your investing! No need to respond if you didn't calculate yourself, but for the correlation between BTC & LTC in 2017, what is the frequency you used for the returns (e.g: Daily, Weekly)?
I used daily correlations
If I remember correctly @criptovestor already mentioned the 1st scenario some time ago in fall 2017. But the time is indefinite. Some speculators are saying that it's gonna happen around June 2018, on the basis of the altcoin roadmaps, which a lot of them have deadlines a little before than, if I understood correctly.
And may I ask did you do any calculation of probability on either scenarios? If yes is that how you redesigned your portfolio?
And on an completely different note: I also like Crypto Investors videos a lot, but sometimes I'm just feeling this because of the psychology of people, which is basically: We like (and trust!) people with like opinions.
It is very true that tech doesn't win every battle, and for that reason I don't discount BTC in the long run. I like what Andreas Antonopoulos said about Bitcoin, he was asked about BTC versus ETH, and the question posed that ETH was like a lego kit with a multiplicity of tools for devs to use, and the question posed BTC as a basic lego plain block.
The question was more a comment but Antonopoulos responded rigthly by saying that master lego builders use basic blocks to build even the most complicated structures but on a larger scale, because at a higher resolution it will work.
The analogy meaning that BTC can fit some major needs, and will not die off because 2nd or 3rd gen cryptos are also good. Tech doesnt by itself win the market.
The real truth of the matter is that most of these major altcoins aren't even bringing anything new to the table, they look at bitcoin and say "we can do all of that BUT BETTER" and come up with some mediocre use case (most of which don't even need blockchain or decentralization) and 200bil coins not backed by any proof model and sell them to people who think they're going to get Lamborghinis.
They think they can be Bitcoin 2.0, but in reality, bitcoin is the only one that's been in the fire long enough to have developed real resiliency, and what these crapcoins don't understand is that they will, one day, run into the same scalability issues, that bitcoin is already 2 steps ahead on and actively working to fix.
Privacy, smart contracts, viable scaling... all of these are things that bitcoin will eventually be able to do and then everyone else is left wondering what the point in using those other currencies is. Sure, right now, the fees are inconvenient and the transaction time is slow and that's frustrating and annoying, but if anything, the bottle neck drives up price volatility and makes it an even more attractive speculative asset.
Half of this speculative cash being tossed around wouldn't even exist if it weren't for bitcoins battle scars.
I agree. Also I would add that what you say is why I argue against investing in a wide range of "currency" crypto coins. We do not need 10 coins that transact value as their primary use case, let alone 500 which is closer to the mark today. Just like we dont need 300 decentralized platform coins, but we have 'em anyways.
Point being, 90-95% of all coins will disappear one day, and likely the first to go will be those that clearly offer nothing but a promise of future development.
This is why I primarily invest in crypto that has a use case today, and preferrably a revenue stream to support their growth.
Some of my favourites are TenX, because I see them as a leader in making crypto spendable, and there is a market for that. More than 100,000 users in Europe so far have signed up and are spending millions of crypto already, generating fees which the company can sustain its growth upon.
There are others, like Steem, and the value it gains by the increasing appeal of Steemit.
Or Ethereum or Neo which already have many apps coming out for their platforms.
I guess what I am saying is if they aren't already being used by a customer base, altering how a traditional business model can operate, then they haven't proven themselves as a meaningful crypto, in my opinion.
I agree with you. this important thing about bitcoin that it's paving the new grounds, is not emphasized enough. ethereum also has it's scalability issues if I understand correctly. I feel like a mature crypto community would point newcomers to appreciate the brand of bitcoin, cause it really deserves the dignity. after all, the code can continuously be improved and the network already is stronger that any other rivals. anybody who dismisses the importance of decentralization is missing the whole point and I fear this becomes the coming weakness of the network. bankers are gold investors are waging a war. there needs to be great deal of illumination in2018.
I've always loved the topic of why certain innovations ultimately succeed even when there are other "better" alternatives. There are many reasons why and right now I think it's too early to definitively say that Bitcoin will or won't be the one, but it certainly has the best shot just from the absurd level of resources and support thrown behind it. Andreas is the best.
I would like to challenge your views. Bitcoin's PoW is flawed. If Bitcoin does not move away from it, it cannot and will not succeed. The entire earth's electricity network won't be able to supply enough electricity to feed the Beast. That is crazy. Nuts. Kookoo. Now Bitcoin will never move to another consensus algorithm, as miners control the network. Might happen over their dead bodies or if they become desperate enough. In the short term Bitcoin will continue to be King. However cannot say the same for the long term
Funny thing is everyone talks about Bitcoin's transaction problems as if that's going to be its downfall, but how bad is BTC's position if we really consider it? Right now nobody in their right mind wants to spend their crypto on coffee and burritos because they know it's only going to go up in value relative to fiat. What's a better store of value than it to hodl and trust to gain in value? I bought LTC and Dash to spend, but I don't even use them for the same reasons.
I'd argue the bottleneck in transaction speed has created added price volatility that's made it even more attractive to speculators.
Agreed as well, Bitcoin is the Coca-Cola of Crypto, the gateway, the red carpet leading the masses to the whole show. Bitcoin has and will always have a brilliant history, however sadly, I continually pour it out into alts as no matter how high Bitcoin may rise, I've lost faith in those that have imprisoned it's development. In no way will I support a team who wishes to see Bitcoin poked and prodded by sidechains till we no longer see Bitcoin as anything but a shell of what it once was.
I believe Bitcoin to be a prisoner of it's "handlers" held against the original will of vision it was created with. All that aside!! It will not matter, Bitcoin will do very well because a Coke is a Coke no matter how many iterations the end product has endured, to the consumer it matters not.
Excellent Videos, and Excellent replies by all here..Great group you have going here Crytovestor!! Thank You!
I think we need to somehow support Andreas
You have a very good point in that the better technology not always wins, when you have technologies that are competing for the same space the one that wins is usually the one that has the better marketing team.
There is also another part, ease of access. Take HD-DVD vs Blue Ray, both very similar tecnologies that were fighting for dominance in the same space. There is one thing that separates these however, one was included natively with the companies gaming console and the other you had to buy an add on. Blue Ray won, however I do not buy or rent ether, I prefer to watch things online.
I believe that bitcoin is going to be in trouble in the long term should it not fix the problems that plague it, even if it is not going away anytime soon. All this depends on how much real adoption it gets in the next few years. Nowadays it is no longer the only currency, and two of the things that are on the bitcoin.org website are not as true as they where when it started.
It's interesting that you mentioned VHS / Betamax. Whilst Beta (BTC) was the better product, VHS (altcoins) had better marketing, was cheaper and was made readily available to anyone by JVC. You also mentioned in a previous video that scalability wasn't the biggest issue with crypto currencies but in fact adoption. For the world to truly adopt a new meta in finance and transacting...they must be able to get their digital hands on it. I'm afraid BTC has become a victim of it's own success and either we will live in a world where a select few have the vast majority of wealth...(ring any bells?)...or something else comes along that is cheaper, has great marketing and is readily available for the masses at an equal price for all. It is my opinion that BTC struggles to accomplish any one of these things. BTC may have been the first and proven itself thus far, but to a lot of lay people it is still seen as a black market currency used by drug dealers and criminal gangs. The crypto that will market itself effectively and be available to the public for a reasonable price will win the day. Perhaps it is TRON, perhaps not. But there will be a day when BTC is no longer at the top on coinmarketcap.
Edit: Great video and I enjoy these more than the pump and dump altcoin types. I hope everyone heeds your warnings to only invest in a crypto that will actually provide a solution and value.
As you said, marketing, or mindshare have a lot to do with adoption. And names have a lot to do with marketing. So i dont see tron beeing used, just because of the name. Im not kidding here, not even bankers would look at a coin named tron seriously. I may be wrong though, just my opinion
In that case. BTC is not a better product, but it does somehow have better marketing (picked up by mainstream media).
+krisr92... It could be argued that way. However, the way JVC marketed their VHS was by making it as widely available at pretty much any price the retailer wanted to sell it for. Therefore, almost anyone could get one for a cheaper price than Beta. You could even extend the comparison to the entire cassette stage and say BTC is the U-Matic, which was released years before VHS/Beta but ultimately was too expensive for the everyday Joe. Therefore, it never gained mass adoption simply because ordinary people couldn't get hold of it. Therein lies the BTC paradox. Yes it will always be there and be important, but something will come along to take top spot...simply by learning lessons from BTC and doing it better. Marketing is about keeping a consumer happy. If you don't have consumers, you don't have a market.
One thing that you said that's worrying me though is the fact some people own most of the Bitcoin available. If Bitcoin was going to have massive adoption it's really worrying.
I expect another price drop in the 12K range. According to Ichimoku support level. Most likely after hitting again 12K it will slowly but surely rise just like before in about 30-45 days. And I think at the peak we'll see a similar situation to what happened at the last peak, 2 huge candles or at least 1 will most like show the eagerness of people to get into the market because of FOMO.
Note: If the price closes below 12K and for a few days it will keep going down check for trend reversal. Wait for things to chill and enter a safe market if goes back into Bullish trend.
I agree with most of what CryptoInvestor is saying BUT "Better safe than sorry"
Everyone wanting to get into market don't rush to buy at 10K. Wait for the price and indicators to clearly showing bullish. IF it goes bullish then I agree with estimates that CryptoInvestor did and IMHO it might go way above 23K.
Hi,
I was only a crypto miner until recently where I decided to join in the market, mostly to try and HODL a few coins that look promising, I'm not investing much as I remember the first rule of investment (never invest more than you can afford to lose).
However, I'd love to have your opinion on a coin I invested in recently, before it blew up, I feel like it as potential, but I greatly value your opinion otherwise I would've never subscribed to your YT channel or even join steemit in order to try and get in touche with you.
So to get back to the subject, could you please tell me what is your opinion on FLASHcoin, I personally think it's a coin that as much potential, from the roadmap and actual usability, but I'm still learning so much about crypto everyday, I may be missing out something.
Also I'm converting most of my miners revenue into BTC to HODL since it also believe most altcoin are in massive bubble territory, the rest is cashed out to pay the bills required to run the rigs.
I love your videos, they are very interesting and I've learned so much from you. I wish you a wonderful 2018 both for your personal life and the YT channel.
I've seen flashcoin but I don't have an currently have an opinion on it. However there are some things to think on: 1) As the video said, altcoins are currently in a bubble. Therefore, unless bitcoin dies (which is not a zero chance) then the value of flashcoin, even if it stay up, is unlikely to skyrocket(low ROI). 2) is it the BEST? Can't answer, do some research. also, what are it's competitors? are they better? Make your decision. And 3rd) (medium to longterm question but relevant to # 1 is when will bitcoin lose top position(if it does)?
Not everything or even the majority but can be a good starting point.
Great post, and thanks for you thorough analysis! Of the money you have allocated to cryptos, how many percent do you currently have in cash? And if you have cash, what scenario are you waiting for to deploy it?
I've been slowly building a long-term crypto portfolio over the past three months, but I'm only 50% invested so far. If you had to take a guess, do you think it is more likely that we will get another opportunity to buy Bitcoin around $10K, $8K or even $5K, or will we not see those levels again before we see $23,000 or more?
Looking at the previous Bitcoin price history, and taking your altcoin exodus thesis into account, it looks to me like Bitcoin will not break the December 22 low before hitting $20K again. If so, I probably should try to buy some more here at the $14K-$15K levels. What do you think?
@cryptovestor You ahve a "doubble" in here, but Im sur eyou know as I asume thast wmy your profile name is cryptovestor and not Crypto Investor, But i found him thinking it was you at first :P
Regardless, i find your reasoning interesting to take into considderation and thanks for making me aware fo the other functions of coinmarketcap as tools for knowing when a total market correction may happen as happened today. (due to a new total market cap top.)
Even though from an article on Coindesk about Coinmarketcap excluding the Korean exchanges from its avrage price charts, it writes that manny claim; that is what triggered the correction. As it looked like a market decline when they didnt know what was the reason for it, as it was not announced.
As always, very good points. Most people will soon realize that they have been just gambling and not investing when they picked all the crap coins on the market, like Tron. Tron is really a bad choice, even for gambling. The whitepaper is full of crap. The github page is a joke. It is very amateur type.
Worse than that, the way Justin tries to market tron is so childish. Honestly, who cares if he is under thirty or above eighty as long as he brings something substantial?!That is very childish! Most of his social media messages are so bad for the reputation of his coin. How dare he tries to compete with the BEST GUY, Charlie Lee. Charlie could simply destroy TRON with one twit.
In general, we should ask ourselves if we want to invest or gamble here. If it is investing, we need to take it seriously and do our research (read the whitepaper, check the team and understand what the technology is trying to change for humanity).
I do a bit of gambling and a lot of investing. It always hurts when I lose in the coins that I picked for gambling (even when my loss is just a penny). On the other hand, I never doubted or felt down when the coins I picked for a long time investment were reduced by half.
I've been gambling with coins, such as BNB, XRP, XLM and few others. There is media hype and some real use case behind, which reduces the risk of gambling. If you ask me about my long term positions, you will find me holding ETH, ARK, ICX, STORJ.
Hello there @cryptovestor I really enjoyed your video. I liked your thought process and explanations on why you dislike TRON and to be honest I would love to hear more opinions like these. I mean it's great to promote (supposedly) good Coins and make a case for them because I think it's human nature to enjoy positive statements.
But I would also love to hear about the opposite: It would be awesome, if you made a video about some, let's say currently TOP 50 coins, which you don't like and your reasons for disliking them. I would enjoy this to be a pure "your personal opinion" video because I believe you are a knowledgable crypto researcher and I'm very interested in what rings your internal BS alarm bells. I know that such a video might attract a lot of hate from all the supporters of the coins you would mention as your disliked ones. BUT this could also spark an interesting discussion, if supporters of those coins made a well argumented case for their coins.
Anyway, please think about making such a video, if you can see a way it would eventually provide a good contribution to your channel :)
Maybe I'll just make a video about the top 50 cryptocurrencies and crush them all equally, even the ones I like - then everyone can feel they got screwed over equally. I've seriously contemplated it, but I first need to learn a lot more before I could make such a video. At least Bitconnect is a freebie.
Maybe we can do a shared sheet in google drive. listing coins with good fundamentals. which coins will survive lightning network. which are the HODL ones. cryptovestor, would you join this ?
I completely agree with you about the current market resembling a penny stock casino right now. there are some favored YouTube channels (100k subs) promoting couple of alts in each video and they sometimes actually make 3 videos per day!
I have a question with regards to the bitcoin/ ethereum comparative standings. In an event that ethereum reaches 10 k$ in price by the end of 2018, what are your thoughts on price of bitcoin at that particular situation. I do think it is unlikely for that to happen, however given the fact that how fast the mentality of the market changes, I think it's prudent to consider the case for ethereum becoming more popular as time goes by. I should add that I believe in such cases bitcoin will still remain favored, however I cannot speculate a price. I hope you can help with that.
Another thing that I want to say is about people loosing faith in ICOs. you once said when things are out of favor it is time to look in to them. As for the argument of "no utility of cryptos", I'm observing a trend in which more developers seem to start caring about that in their projects.
In terms of investing I believe spotting potent ICOs will prove to be more profitable than chasing altcoin pumps in 2018. I have stumbled up on an ICO named DIGITEX, with ambition to provide a commision-less bitcoin futures trading for their users. I'm not trying to promote it, nor have I decided to invest in it. however, given the fact that it seems to benefit traders like us, I thought it might be useful to mention it and ask for your opinion.
If Ethereum reached $10k by end of 2018, I think Bitcoin would be at least ~$58k, likely higher. I don't think it's terribly likely we see a sustained Flippening happen, so that number is based on them being tied. I didn't adjust for inflation and it's back-of-the-envelope math so don't read into it too much. FYI this isn't a prediction, just answering your specific question.
I wouldn't jump into the ICO storm too much. I am hoping eventually there are ICOs where the developers have a working product first to show people and have them use with "fake tokens" just to get an idea of how it works, then raise capital. That'd be more professional, but that's just me. I probably won't touch ICOs still, regardless of how out of favor they become.
I guess you're right about the ICO thing. I just recently heard about the Telegram, start using the word blockchain in their vocabulary. That also means the storm is yet to be over.
I know it's hard to speculate. Cause everything is happening so fast and I feel a certain non linearity in the market behavior. bitcoin is experiencing consolidation I geuss. I look forward to your next video. I saw one video but I think you removed it. might be that I saw a video in my sleep??
Please, do the video on your long term investment picks ASAP. Can't wait! :)
I'm working on it!
Have you seen this hit piece ?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-ethereum-bitcoin-cash-ripple-iota-litecoin-nem-cardano-price-analysis-jan-8
Anyone have any opinions on long term investment in the decentralized search framework Nebulas?
From Website: "Nebulas is used to search smart contracts, distributed applications (DApps) and users’ assets on blockchains"
Some things that stand out to me:
It seems like the team is more focused on development than hype, and it looks like the right talent is working on the project.
Thoughts?
Fantastic video man, you and I see this market in a very similar light.
Coming from someone with alot of experience trading penny stocks...the altcoin market has become its own microbubble within bitcoins ecosystem! It is starting to look just like OTC markets on coin market cap...and the pump and dump tactics are almost identical, except with euphoria about everything for no real reason and plenty of capital to go around.
Be careful out there guys, I've made lots of good money in the OTC, but it isn't by buying pump and dumps peddled by youtubers with a lot of subscribers. I mean for pete's sake one of the top 30 coins right now is a dentist coin, created by people who know nothing about dentistry, with 8 trillion max supply...wtf people.
Be smart, and don't lose your shirt, this year is gonna be crazy. There is no reason you can't still make consistent, AMAZING returns in this market if you invest smartly, and then use SOME of those earnings for speculative altcoin investments, but don't blow all your powder bottom fishing that one "next big moon ticket altcoin" in a dream of making it huge and retiring next week.
You're either a shark, or one of the millions of minnows. And if you're not sure which one you are, you're the minnow.
Agreed 100%. Throwing a ton of cash into into these cheapies with no underlying fundamentals is akin to going all-in on a 1-out royal flush draw. May peel off that perfect card on a very rare occasion but it’s always low value play.
I think it was Doyle Brunson who said that a mediocre poker player who understands risk analysis will be better than a poker professional who doesn't.
Excellent analysis, I gasped with exasperation when dogecoin reached a billion dollars, even when the creator declares this is a joke and look how fucking stupid you would be to buy this dogshit, people still blew it up to $1b!
Dude I know right! When I saw a guy in discord talking about buying dogecoin because it was about to go to .10 and I was telling people there is NO WAY dogecoin will even go to a penny... I guess I had too much faith in people, and sure enough a few days ago...what do I see, but freaking dogecoin, the OG shitcoin inside joke of the early days of bitcoin used on forums for tipping people with tangible internet points, worth over a billion freaking dollars.
Some of these investing telegram groups are full of these guys...its quite scary.
TRX is going to 7 Bucks!
LINDA coin to 3 bucks!
CARDANO to 20 Bucks
or My fav
VERGE to 20 Bucks.
It's actually scary to think these people are pushing thier cash so easily into these coins without thought or reason....then again i blame some YT guys (not CI) posting 10000% gains on my 1 million Pac coins type videos...
like they didnt post it....to hype it up...then dump.
The issue is how much money there is to be made in exponential returns from affiliate link hits like bitconnect and hashflare. It makes youtube channels start to look like a US presidential election with all the false promises and hype thrown around just to get people to "join the club" so to speak.
"this year is gonna be crazy."
I think that will turn out to be a huge understatement.
Thanks for the comment - it really is the penny stock casino right now. I don't want the bubble to pop, but sometimes behavior like this makes me wish it would!
To quote the late Hunter S. Thompson: “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming "Wow! What a Ride!”
Please, do the video on your long term investment picks ASAP. Can't wait. :)
Great video! You're one of the few investors that keep their heads straight despite everything. You're helping me stay grounded and i'm looking forward to your list of "will keep no matter what" as i find so few projects that seem to be worthy of keeping for the long run.
Thanks raging - Same for me. This space as a whole is difficult to me from how emotionally driven it is.
One fundamental question for any crypto currency or digital asset is whether it has a defensible business model. In other words, does it have a sustainable income stream or ecosystem that will be the primary factor for the coin to continue in value?
While currency coins like BTC and LTC do have as their fundamental purpose currency and exchange, I am primarily thinking about what I call "digital assets" and whether they have a defensible business model.
For example, we have "income" coind such as Storj, Ark, Substratum, etc. Then we have "business" coins such as REQ, SALT, VERI, PPT, etc. To another degree, we have coins such as Steem which are creating a new ecosystem. I would ask the fundamental question:
I would be curious to hear the answers.
The altcoin market seems to be crazy right now. Case in point, Dentacoin is now the 29th largest crypto-currency in the market - "securing your teeth by the power of the blockchain". Ok. I am taking the piss, but I seriously do not see a venture that should have a valuation even in the millions. This coin should essentially be worthless but it is valued at $2 billion. Madness.
When this bubble bursts, can it be anything less than disastrous for many investors? I mean, it's not just Dentacoin. 95% of the altcoins, at least to me, should be not be worth even a tiny fraction of their valuations...
What happens when the altcoin bubble pops? I am guessing a disorderly exit? What do you folks think?
All I know is micro transactions are taking days not hours. I tend to respect @thedollarvigilante analysis the most and they have legitimate doubts about where developers are taking BTC.
Those are fair concerns, but it's too early yet to be certain as to where Bitcoin really will go. The developers are obviously aware of these delays and costs. I imagine once we see the realities of layer 2, they'll revisit layer 1.
It's important to be aware that the Dollar Vigilante is pals with Roger Ver, which is probably why he's talking down BTC while promoting BCash.
Investing in crypto coins or tokens is pretty speculative and the market is essentially unregulated. Anyone thinking about it should be organized to lose their entire investment.
The problem is a lot of people don't know themselves well enough to know how much they're okay with losing - you often only figure this out through experience.
This is an important issue to consider. Invest only a reasonable amount out your net worth. An extreme market change, or new legislation on crypto could send a portfolio to ruins. Remain bullish on crypto, but within reason.
I think with the utility of Ethereum increases, the price will become more independent of Bitcoin. And in the last couple of days, I see many altcoins(valuable ones) becomes more resilient with Bitcoin price fluctuate. The market is still irrational and immature, full of gamblers want to make quick money, but I think that is a good indicator of how promising the market is. There will be crashes in the future, and I think that's not a bad thing, it will wash out most of the shitcoins and let money flow back to valuable project. BTW, the global stock market today is 78T, cryptocurrency won't cause the next financial crisis but this stock bubble will. should be interesting to see what happens then.
Market has a long way to go before it is mature enough to rationally price assets, but I am looking forward to that moment. Obviously you can never be 100% efficient, but can say with certainty that this market is far worse than most when it comes to market efficiency. Another global economic event would indeed be an interesting event for Bitcoin because you can argue it both ways as good or bad.
The altcoin bubble still has much more room to grow. But there is overvaluation running rampant. The problem is that there are more "investors" joining every day. Until that user influx slows down the bubble has room.
Indeed, I think the bubble has room too although I am starting to look more closely for signs it won't because this all accelerated far beyond what I or anyone else expected.
Whats your view on When that growth will stall?
When bitcoin has its next major bullrun. The past few months have shown its tends to fall in the middle of the month.
I think as BTC takes 40% dominance you will see it ramp up in marketcap growth and altcoin markets will start to look sluggish compared to Bitcoin growth once again.
Nice Rant on Tron, tbh you could have replaced Tron with a huge amount of other coins! I personally look at CMC and just gasp at the stupidity of people who risk hard earned money on Bullshit. The problem is that when the Alt correction comes, those "investors" will view it as just another temporary correction, but at some point that correction will seem endless and not only will they hesitate to get out but will be unable to get out due to the crashing of exchanges and the slowness of their particular shit coin network.
I look forward to that video about what coins you plan to hold to the death, I presume they are utility coins with some real world profitable use cases that will someday actually make money and survive. I have my sights on SALT as I know you already have some, will be interesting if you think that $500m in loans already queued up and a shit ton of future business will be enough for you to hold it long term, nice vid.
In a way I think a lower bitcoin dominance is a good thing. It allows people to own various cryptocurrencys instead of having everything centralized in bitcoin. If everyone just used bitcoin it would make bitcoin a large central target, especially for banks, governments and other controlling parties. That way if someone wanted to take down, or take over, crypto, all they would need to do is infiltrate bitcoin. If we are free to express ourselves with different cryptocurrencys we can have many different forms of wealth and payments. Thus spreading out the market and technology, keep everything open source, permissionless, ect... of course.
Idk, my two cents. I'd be okay with having more than one dominate currency, especially if we can get things like atomic swaps working well.
Bitcoin is the flagship of cryptocurrency, and the king of coins. If the NWO doesnt make BTC succeed spectacularly, the sheeple wont know what to do. BTC is what drove the second wave of early adopters into crypto last year and the NWO wants the rest of the world in too, so they will run its price up after they have all established their positions. It is still not too late to get in, but keep 30%-70% of your portfolio spread out among alts for bigger gains overall.
@cryptoinvestor,
I currently mine Ethereum with my computer since mid december and i'm constantly trading it almost weekly for bitcoin or for altcoins to make profit on binance. Did so at 0.06 and 0.065 BTC levels. Then, I keep some BTC and trade some other BTC into alts.
But maybe, taking into account ETH/BTC reached nearly 0.08, was it a mistake?
If you had a constant, weekly flow of "free" Ethereum by mining, one flow thats actually "funding" your cryptotrading activity mostly, what would be your strategy to maximize your profits from the ETH?
I would really like to hear your opinion on this, and by the way, nice video, always like to try and absorb knowledge and point of view from someone more experienced than me.
It is true that all of the value for numerous altcoins comes from hype, many people invest in them because the growth rate of such a crypto is unbelievable high so they use it to their advantage to make a quick buck. The true value only have altcoins with people who truly believe in them and the technology behind them. Could you make a future video regarding the super high growing altcoins vs the study growth of Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ether. . .
Maybe, but that's kind of what I have been doing so far (even if not in a very organized manner). The subject matter is getting old, but if I can find a way to make it fresh then I will.
"Roger Ver", lol.
Low effort meme, made me chuckle!
Placements on point tho
I think people vastly ignored one fact, which pretty much determines the price of bitcoin: A recent news said that 97% of the BTC are hold by 4% of the pub keys. So those few people in fact determine BTC price, but how?
First, they do not want BTC back to 1000 USD. Thus they will not sell off and cause that. They might even buy BTC when price starts falling in order to keep the publics interest on it. I believe they are responsible for the current support above 12k.
Second, they are clever investors, thus they want to diversify. Selling their BTC is a good idea, but they cannot sell off and crash it. Thus they will slowly sell when BTC gets good price. That will create upwards resistance.
Thus i see BTC prices being kept on a safe range for those 4% holders.
An interesting question is: what does it mean for alts?
Certainly many people will get into investing on crypto the coming months. If BTC does not spike, alts become interesting. If the whole crypto market cap increases a lot and BTC's doesn't, it must be happening among the alts.
The last conclusion is, off course, dependent on the assumption of mass adoption (or mass investment hype). On that point there are still some doubts.
Hey Cryptovestor. I have a few points, that you didnt explain deeper and I'd like to hear your opinions.
1 - Don't you think that it's kinda reasonable btc's dominance moving down? Market is getting bigger, there are things faster/cheaper than Btc and market (at least some part) already realise that? So it means BTC have to lose it in long term. But I'm not saying btc will die. I'm just an investor and I focus on making money, it's nothing personal.
2 - You kinda answered it with two magical words MASS ADOPTION, and I'm curious why you are still that bullish, once we have things like VEN / ETH / Waves etc. that you already can use for something? Isn't it just an old dogma, that BTC has to be >50?% . I'm also oldschooler, when i came to cryptos in 2013, i bought 8 things and i literally had whole market. So btc #1 , yes i agree, but i'd find an argument that it will slow down, and new projects w reasonable use will take their own (big) parts. Whole my point is basically that we expect cryptos will have some real life USE , but there's lack of it for btc
3 - For what exactly we will need BTC if :
a - you can buy alts w fiat (waves dex, vertbase etc. in the future)
b- you can buy alts w eth / ltc / neo / something random big directly
c- you can SWITCH alts cuz token swaps/atomic swaps etc. ?
d- you can store value/trading capital in something more "boring" and less volatile... I'd say LTC/XRP but it had also crazy action lately, but you get the point
4 - Why exactly you hated mindset w this logic
I have 20 000$, what makes bigger gains?
a) I have alt w reasonable tech, hype, events and it has mcap 100mil, so i think it will double at least
b) I have btc, what's chance to double on 20k$
You said it's bad mindset, maybe im kinda overthinking that, but once im not a new, buying some stupid thing w lambo/moon hype and have some kinda of attitude ( check events, that thing itself, s/r lvl, cap, supply,team behind, is it PnD or not, is it real use/concept, enough hype, grups shilling it etc) ... Why it's just that bad , when i says yes, i think this think will make more than 2x cuz this and that, vs btc (on 20k for example) that needs 2x capital incoming (rougly obv) ..
Thanks for your time and thanks for everything you've helped me it, in your videos.
You are giving me additional confidence for what I'm doing with my cryptos already, thanks!
Good stuff man. I joined Steemit community because of you.
Welcome!
same
same :)
and I am loving steemit :D
thanks
BUY THE DIP. In this case, it was nothing but a FOMO spree as a result of price deviations from coinmarketcap with respect to Korean markets. Minor correction but as CI says, stay bullish!
It's nothing but a teeter totter. When bitcoin is up, BUY altcoins. When altcoins are up, BUY bitcoins. Each are inversely related to each other!!!
True, the two have always chased each other. The future of crypto may look different though. Etherium seems to be gaining slot of steem considering other crypto run on it.
Well, I'm glad I had some neblio today :) I'd like to know your thoughts on this particular platform/coin.
TRON was another Raiblocks-type pump, but with a stronger unit bias effect. Much easier to bid something above $0.20 than $30 for the laymen generating the price movements. But at least some of them might learn something about speculative markets after being burned like that and make better decisions in the future. Isaac Newton lost a ton in the South Sea bubble, and he was one of the smartest people who's ever lived; FOMO is a hell of a thing.
What do you think about South Korea's involvement in crypto? Its exchanges' prices were tossed out by coin market cap last night, apparently because they've maintained a 20-40% cushion in pricing above what the rest of the world is paying for weeks now. Like, $23k bitcoin, $1.8k ETH, $3.80 ripple, $3.7k bitcoin cash today. When its exchanges were removed, the total market cap dipped from $815B to $780B. I keep expecting their price discrepancies to close over time and they continue not to do so; if anything they've grown even larger recently. It's bizarre.
In the past you talked about Bitcoin being the index to judge all the Alt coins against. I've been using Ethereum as the indexing tool and Bitcoin as a cash out. So many of the exchanges accept Ethereum as a trading medium and the transaction fees are relatively low. Is this train of though logical? I see the argument of Bitcoin having the brand recognition but ease of use Ethereum is better in my experience.
Can you please do a video on Hashgraph?
I actually feel that it is sad that better technology does not win in the long run.Being a developer i know the amount of hard work that goes into making a idea into reality and while they're are some good alts like ENJ,STORJ,VTC where you can see the amount of hard work being put in.I really hope BTC implements Lightning network , as that would help justify BTC as a currency.
The thing is, we need more Slavoj Žižek! :)
Is there a minimum amount of ETH that you'd move back into BTC? A rule of thumb? How do you personally calculate that amount of ETH to exchange for BTC?
Tough to let go of ETH when it's doing so well, even though BTC looks primed to appreciate too. Then, there are the delays and fees attached to such a transaction.
The developer community will follow Ethereum and like technologies. The Bitcoin development community is split into multiple forks because of the luck of (ironically) consensus, the lack of the clear vision and the leader. One of the reasons Ethereum is less affected by pump and dump because developers own a large portion of it, and they aren't interested in daily trading. Better tech will win, and bitcoin is clearly an old generation technology.
Nice post!
BUY BITCOIN until moonshot!
keep up the good work, i like your view on things, i don't agree with some things but it's nice to see what others think :)
Lmao, love the video.... No nonsens tell it like it is :P totally agreed!