I still believe in option one which could be possible if we get more mainstream exposure and the crypto-community expands beyond the current minority of nerdy cryptonauts. I use option#1 to a minor extent when I transfer bitcoin to my friends and back, taking advantage of not paying fees while sending money overseas.
We also have online shops and services popping up that accept bitcoin. Option two does seem quite likely, and even option three has justification: From an investors perspective it would be rational to take profits when/if bitcoin looses it's momentum and this might cause a cascade effect. Thank you for this awesome post.