Analysis Video -
/v/112287193I walk through my analysis of the rise and fall up to 1166, then back down to 851.
We'll look at some of the long- and medium-term charts and trends. The aim is to understand how we got to where we did, and why we crashed to where we did. Once we have a solid premise for that, we can look to future expectations.
Give it a watch, then make sure to ask any remaining questions you may have. I'd be happy to do my best to respond to them below.
If you enjoyed this video, make sure to follow me here and/or on twitch, as I expect to make more such videos now that the market is again becoming active.
In the time since I've posted this, we have broken out of a wedge to the upside, while on a decline. This is the first antipattern movement we've had since the big correction.
I also note that while BTCChina and Huobi seem to be down, OKCoin's price is now at parity with Bitfinex.
This strengthens the case that our consolidation range has been defined and that we'll range within it for awhile.
It further suggests that we may be ready to test some of the higher levels of the consolidation.
That breakout has confirmed.
Recognizing key levels becomes so valuable amidst greater volatility. Once a confirmation level is broken, there can easily be $30-50 runups in seconds.
Selling at 992 - this looks local toppish. (bitfinex did not clear the local 994.6 high on its most recent high --> more down!)
(Check out bit-sim.trade for a free paper-trading bitcoin game - it's a blast!)
Finally got confirmation. The declining volume and failure to breach 994.6 were early indicators, but we dropped to 967 now, on volume.
I expect the $909 low to be the bottom of this shortest-term wave, at the lowest.
I will be quick to take profits here, as the upswing should be violent.
This continues to develop and is being covered live here:
http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79/live
I exited this position at 970 for a >2% gain.
it looks like it's a good time to buy some BTC but the fact that the price is unstable & the reasons why aren't abvious yet is what make it kind of worrisome
Emotions, both fear and greed, run highest during rallies.
My goal in analyzing is coming to some conclusions, right or wrong, that I can put on paper and question with logic, related data, and historical precedent.
Then, when the terrifying (or greedy) moment comes, we can rely on our pre-set plans rather than our emotional mindset.
In the shortest term, I expect great volatility, both to the upside as well as the downside.
Are you a long-term holder, or someone thinking about newly getting into it?
to be honest im a miner and im new to crypto currency, i have done some research to understand the basics about how economy works & how crypto works too so you can say im not that good in making some good judgement! but i have some BTC that i earned plus i bought some at 700's & i want to hold it atm
Sounds like you're on the right track. You can lose your shirt trading, whereas Bitcoin has been the best currency something like 5 of the last 6 years.
When I got into Bitcoin I was frivolous with them. I cringe to think how many $5 Bitcoins I just threw away on stupid stuff.
It's a good time to be mining, that's for sure!
Upvoted and Tweeted!
Thanks so much, paulo! Today represents Day 1 of uploading/writing/streaming in this format.
I appreciate your efforts to help spread the word!
Market action has quieted, but we are still following the action live here, if you want to watch/have questions:
http://www.youtube.com/user/russeljc79/live
Disclaimer: I am just a bot trying to be helpful.
Wow, this got within around 7 dollars of the price of one ounce of gold then plummetted. Is this a coencidence?
It actually exceeded gold parity in China by nearly $100.
There was a confluence of significant values all near each other.
$1000 in USD, 1000 in Euro, 8888 in yuan, the chinese all time highs, the US all time highs, and of course, parity with gold.
We exceeded all of those except the all time highs on US exchanges.
In the rally of late 2013, we hit exactly gold parity.
On top of all those things, you can see that 1163 was the exact top of a trendline we've been following for months - that is drawn in the video linked to above.
...I don't personally believe the price we hit before we crashed was a coincidence.