Nice article. I don't really agree on the price spike prediction that may happen in May 2021. Statistically, the price trend line for Bitcoin is not a result of independent factors. The news released, the government control, the speculation mindset and the unexpected fad of crypto currency all influence the price direction. Now the market is going more mature and more sensible. The government's altitudes towards Bitcoin have gradually settled down. I may think the price curve will fluctuate but with a trend slightly down until some unexpected demand rises or technology grows to make Bitcoin irreplaceable in some field. Otherwise, the price Spike cannot happen just based on the halving theories. Happy to discuss on this though.
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Yes, a lot of that is correct. However, miners represent the biggest sellers. If you cut the amount they are selling each day in half, and demand just stays constant, prices will go up. If prices are relatively steady now, all we need is a reduction in supply and prices will go up. If there is an increase in demand like you are talking about as well as a supply decrease, prices will go way up.