Why I will never get to 1 Bitcoin

in #bitcoin7 years ago

Each week I put a bit of money aside to invest in Bitcoin. After living expenses and mortgage repayments I don’t have much left to put toward bitcoin, only about $75 per week. I was interested to know how long it will take me to get 1 Bitcoin so I did a quick excel calculation. I was surprised to find the answer. Never.

I graphed the current value of bitcoin since January 2016 and added in a trendline.

At first glance, I figured the trendline was conservative. You can see that at the currently value, we are ahead of the curve. I suppose there will be some corrections along the way so let’s roll with this for now.

Then, using the trendline equation, I mapped out my total bitcoin holdings if I were to buy $75 every week at the price that week.

After 1 year, the theoretical price is $11k/btc and I will hold 0.72 btc. This doesn’t sound too far off base.

After 2 years, the theoretical price is $43k/btc and I will hold 0.88 btc.

After 5 years, the theoretical price is $2.64M (getting a little extreme but others have predicted higher) and I would hold 0.953 btc.

After 500 years I will have 0.954 btc and the price will be $1x10^301

I won’t get to 1 bitcoin, but I’ll be happy with my $1.01x10^301

Ok so obviously we can’t extrapolate quite that far. That being said, in 500 years Fiat currency could well be completely obsolete and worthless making this amount actually accurate in the same way that 1kg gold is almost infinitely more valuable than 1kg of dirt.

Please don’t take this too seriously guys. This was just a 5 minute calculation for my own interest and a bit of fun. But if you want to hold 1 bitcoin, I don’t recommend the $75 per week method.

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Upvoted, followed, and resteemes. Good analysis.

This is actually a really good article. Even if you don't get to 1 bitcoin, you'll probabaly have a lot more value in the end. 😉💯

Thanks for this, this help reinforce my own calculations that showed investing into bitcoin was absolutely pointless.

I've been mining Verium and Etherium with some computers along with investing into Etherium, tokens and a few transactional coins and made some nice profits over the last month.

If you wanna get rich quick, buy a lotto ticket.
If you want to retire early with lots of money, invest into crypto currency.

Beercules!

The point of this post was not to show that investing in bitcoin is pointless. Almost the opposite.
The only point I'm making here is that with the power of exponential, small regular investments will be much less profitable than a big early buy at a low price.

"The only point I'm making here is that with the power of exponential, small regular investments will be much less profitable than a big early buy at a low price."

Exactly what I was reinforcing, but investing all your savings into a single coin will end badly.

Best way to invest is to either short trade on an exchange, invest into ICOs or research companies, place funds based on long term investments. All which can be done with as little as 5$ a month with massive returns over the long term.

Bitcoin in my opinion is only useful today as a transaction currency but only because its widely accepted. If you want a real good long term investment with small amounts of money look into VERIUM / VERICOIN, TenX, Ripple and Golem.

Found a great video, alt coins vs bitcoin investment. Great advice in this video.
DON'T CHASE THE HYPE!

Good luck!

BEEEEEEEERCULES!

Trend is unsustainable. Keep posting on steem and swap your coins and you will have 1 btc over time especially when It dips. I would expect a drop to $2,500 soon, but just my opnion, not trading advice. Most huge moves up retrace before resuming.

Interesting article. :)

keep accumulating...

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If only I never lost 0.7 BTC at a scam site...I have earned more than 1 BTC online, but never held 1 whole at a time...