yeah it is a good analysis and could happen. however the 8 k drop you talking about lasted such a short time, and barely enough before people bought it back again - especially those that are professionals. But for sure people will sell at each big milestone, to be safe! we shall see what happens, i think by next year same time price could be in 40 k mark. The hype around it, will just spread further and further!
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I think you are right. I'm seeing questions about it in my fb groups that are unrelated to money or crypto. I'm shocked by the new interest just in the last couple of weeks. The groups I'm in are for health, authors, artists, and social media marketing for the most part. There's posts like, "Hey what does everyone know about bitcoin?" And then we are off because someone always knows something.
People saying it is fake do not realize that those who hold it are actually spending it "just like money." They think you can only sell it in exchanges.
Once grandma's like me find out you can use a debit card and buy coffee with it - they want to try. I only have my steemit account right now, but I am trying to figure out this wallet thing and progress. If it's got me interested - that says a lot for the old lady contingent.
Same time next year.. Anything could happen. 40K. 100K Who knows?! :)