Benjamin Cowen, compares Bitcoin's current market behavior to previous cycles, particularly those in 2020 and 2017. He points out the similarities in price movements, such as a capitulation low, a recovery rally, and then a period of consolidation. He notes that this month has been very similar to what was seen in 2020. While he hopes for a rally in the fourth quarter, he doesn't expect it to be as explosive as the one in late 2020.
He also highlights the importance of considering that this is a post-halving year and that historically, market cycle tops have occurred in the fourth quarter of post-halving years. He cautions against being overly optimistic that this cycle will be different and go on longer.
Cowen also discusses the "bull market support band," a technical indicator he uses, showing how Bitcoin has found support at this level in previous years, specifically in 2017 and 2021. He concludes by saying that he's watching to see if Bitcoin continues to consolidate at these levels and that he's hopeful for a move up as we head into early Q4.
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