The general assumption is that when th SBD is distributed more equally, then it will go to smaller users for whom it doesn't make sense to make payout. From that perspective it would happen other way around. But, I don't have the actual numbers. Do you statistically analyze the price/supply movements on the level of the blockchain?
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We're still in a position where well over 90% of SP is held by less than 1% of accounts, so we don't yet know how that will work empirically. My hope is that it is distributed more fairly. Right now when a whale downvotes another whale, the Steem put back into the pool will mostly be distributed again by other whales.
You can see what accounts are getting the most rewards here. You can see who is primarily distributing the rewards, as well as lots of other interesting stuff here