PostsCommentsPayoutsthauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 19 hours agoThe Theater of Peak Valuation Has New Actors, Same ScriptThe Theater of Peak Valuation Has New Actors, Same Script So here we are on Friday and the market's doing the thing again. Fewer jobs added than expected? Pump it.…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 2 days agoMemo to My January SelfMemo to My January Self To: Trader Brain From: Historical Context Department Re: What We're Actually Watching Right Now It's Friday morning. The December jobs report lands…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 3 days agoThe Divergence Unspooling: A Trader's SchizophreniaThe Divergence Unspooling: A Trader's Schizophrenia It's 2 AM and I'm staring at three Bloomberg screens, each one telling me something different. Screen one: The euro is at…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 4 days agoWhen the Pattern Breaks, Everything ChangesWhen the Pattern Breaks, Everything Changes A note on what we're really witnessing in these first days of 2026, and why the most successful traders are suddenly quieter than…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 5 days agoThe Venezuela Playbook Is Old. The Markets Know It. (And So Do You, You Just Won't Admit It.)The Venezuela Playbook Is Old. The Markets Know It. (And So Do You, You Just Won't Admit It.) Let me be direct: When the S&P 500 hits a record on the day the U.S. abducts a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 6 days agoInside the Brain of a Trader on the Maduro Monday When Nothing Made SenseInside the Brain of a Trader on the Maduro Monday When Nothing Made Sense 9:30 AM. Markets open. Email already has 47 unread messages. Did we just kidnap a president over…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Moment Wall Street Stopped Believing in Growth Stories (But Won't Admit It)The Moment Wall Street Stopped Believing in Growth Stories (But Won't Admit It) 418,227 vehicles. That number—Tesla's Q4 delivery count—is sitting in your portfolio like a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 8 days agoThe Market Has a Hangover and No One's Calling in SickThe Market Has a Hangover and No One's Calling in Sick Three years. The S&P 500 has posted double-digit gains for three consecutive years. That's not bull market behavior…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 9 days agoThe Coward's RecoveryThe Coward's Recovery We just watched Jerome Powell hand over the keys to his office. That's the story nobody wants to tell about Friday. The S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 10 days agoThe Two-Speed Market: Why Divergence Is the Story of 2026The Two-Speed Market: Why Divergence Is the Story of 2026 History doesn't repeat, but markets do rhyme. And right now, entering 2026, the rhyme scheme is shifting in ways that…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 11 days agoThe Schism at the Fed: What the December Minutes Reveal About 2026The Schism at the Fed: What the December Minutes Reveal About 2026 Markets reopen tomorrow after a four-day holiday. The S&P 500 sits at 6,845. Wall Street's year-end targets…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 12 days agoThe Fed Talks Out of Both Mouths and Markets Can't Stop LaughingThe Fed Talks Out of Both Mouths and Markets Can't Stop Laughing Three dissents. That's the number that matters. Three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 13 days agoAnyone Still Holding December 2024 Conviction TradesINTERNAL MEMO RE: The Unraveling. December 29-30, 2025 TO: Anyone Still Holding December 2024 Conviction Trades FROM: Market Operations DATE: Dec 30, 2025…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 14 days agoThe Yen Carry Trade Isn't Dead—It's Just Learning to Bleed DifferentlyThe Yen Carry Trade Isn't Dead—It's Just Learning to Bleed Differently There's a specific moment in financial history where everyone realizes they've been living inside a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 15 days agoWhen the Winner Stops Competing (And Starts Acquiring)When the Winner Stops Competing (And Starts Acquiring) There's a moment in every market cycle that announces itself quietly, without fanfare. Nvidia's $20 billion licensing…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 16 days agoWhen Volume Whispers Louder Than PriceWhen Volume Whispers Louder Than Price There's a line in Michael Lewis's Flash Boys where a trader notices that markets move in ways that don't match the direction of…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 17 days agoThe Holiday Graveyard: What Bitcoin's December Tells Us About JanuaryThe Holiday Graveyard: What Bitcoin's December Tells Us About January Bitcoin is at $87,366. BlackRock's IBIT bled $91 million in a single day this week. Ethereum ETFs? $52.7…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 18 days agoThe System Is Shouting, But Which Way?The System Is Shouting, But Which Way? What's actually happening when your indicators contradict themselves Three days before Christmas, the financial system achieved…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 19 days agoThey Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything.They Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything. I need to say this plainly: Yesterday's market move was a lie dressed up in thin volume and holiday…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 20 days agoThe Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026The Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026 Somewhere around $88,000, Bitcoin stopped being interesting and became something else. A…
