thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 16 hours agoThe Coward's RecoveryThe Coward's Recovery We just watched Jerome Powell hand over the keys to his office. That's the story nobody wants to tell about Friday. The S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 2 days agoThe Two-Speed Market: Why Divergence Is the Story of 2026The Two-Speed Market: Why Divergence Is the Story of 2026 History doesn't repeat, but markets do rhyme. And right now, entering 2026, the rhyme scheme is shifting in ways that…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 3 days agoThe Schism at the Fed: What the December Minutes Reveal About 2026The Schism at the Fed: What the December Minutes Reveal About 2026 Markets reopen tomorrow after a four-day holiday. The S&P 500 sits at 6,845. Wall Street's year-end targets…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 4 days agoThe Fed Talks Out of Both Mouths and Markets Can't Stop LaughingThe Fed Talks Out of Both Mouths and Markets Can't Stop Laughing Three dissents. That's the number that matters. Three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 5 days agoAnyone Still Holding December 2024 Conviction TradesINTERNAL MEMO RE: The Unraveling. December 29-30, 2025 TO: Anyone Still Holding December 2024 Conviction Trades FROM: Market Operations DATE: Dec 30, 2025…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 6 days agoThe Yen Carry Trade Isn't Dead—It's Just Learning to Bleed DifferentlyThe Yen Carry Trade Isn't Dead—It's Just Learning to Bleed Differently There's a specific moment in financial history where everyone realizes they've been living inside a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 7 days agoWhen the Winner Stops Competing (And Starts Acquiring)When the Winner Stops Competing (And Starts Acquiring) There's a moment in every market cycle that announces itself quietly, without fanfare. Nvidia's $20 billion licensing…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 8 days agoWhen Volume Whispers Louder Than PriceWhen Volume Whispers Louder Than Price There's a line in Michael Lewis's Flash Boys where a trader notices that markets move in ways that don't match the direction of…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 9 days agoThe Holiday Graveyard: What Bitcoin's December Tells Us About JanuaryThe Holiday Graveyard: What Bitcoin's December Tells Us About January Bitcoin is at $87,366. BlackRock's IBIT bled $91 million in a single day this week. Ethereum ETFs? $52.7…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 10 days agoThe System Is Shouting, But Which Way?The System Is Shouting, But Which Way? What's actually happening when your indicators contradict themselves Three days before Christmas, the financial system achieved…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 11 days agoThey Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything.They Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything. I need to say this plainly: Yesterday's market move was a lie dressed up in thin volume and holiday…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 12 days agoThe Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026The Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026 Somewhere around $88,000, Bitcoin stopped being interesting and became something else. A…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 13 days agoThe Stagnation Trap: When Bullish Headlines Meet Chopped PricesThe Stagnation Trap: When Bullish Headlines Meet Chopped Prices What Actually Happened This Week (And Why It Matters Less Than You Think) Last Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 14 days agoThe Morning I Stopped Understanding Which Way Was UpThe Morning I Stopped Understanding Which Way Was Up The CPI number hit at 2.7% on Thursday—softer than expected, softer than the 3.1% people were bracing for—and for about…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 15 days agoTikTok Got Bought (Probably), and Everything BrokeTikTok Got Bought (Probably), and Everything Broke A Visceral Tour of Markets Unraveling on Fundamentals Thursday morning I watched Oracle stock gap up 5% in pre-market. By…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 16 days agoThe Decoupling That Can't Decouple (And Other Lies We Tell Ourselves at 3AM)The Decoupling That Can't Decouple (And Other Lies We Tell Ourselves at 3AM) Bitcoin is down 3% for the year. The S&P 500 is up 17.33%. This is the first time in a decade—a…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 17 days agoThe Year We Learned Capitalism Still Works (And Still Hurts)The Year We Learned Capitalism Still Works (And Still Hurts) It's December 17th, and for the first time since November, I'm thinking about 2025 as a complete story rather than…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 18 days agoThe December Delusion: Why Year-End Volatility Masks a Larger ReckoningThe December Delusion: Why Year-End Volatility Masks a Larger Reckoning The market's favorite excuse at this time of year is "low liquidity." It's a phrase whispered across…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 19 days agoThe Carry Trade's Reckoning Is Three Days AwayThe Carry Trade's Reckoning Is Three Days Away I've been staring at the same five charts all morning. Bitcoin at $86,000. The Nikkei down 1.2% on factory contraction. A Bank of…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 20 days agoThe Shift Nobody's Talking About: Why This Week Defines the Next YearThe Shift Nobody's Talking About: Why This Week Defines the Next Year The market this week is oscillating between two competing narratives, and one of them is about to lose.…
