PostsCommentsPayoutsrose98734 (62)in #economy • 19 hours agoThe Fed's 50 bps rate cut is giving off recession vibesSo ... the long awaited interest rate cut at the Sept 18th meeting was 50 bps, rather than 25 bps like the markets expected. The last time there was an unexpected 50 bps cut…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 6 days agoThe American housing market might be stuck for a very long time30 year mortgage rates in the United States are the lowest they've been since April 2023, at 6.2%. But demand for new mortgages isn't budging. Here is the chart: source…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 11 days agoThe Fed is almost certainly going to cut interest rates next weekThe Fed has a dual mandate; low inflation and low unemployment. Sometimes the data on job gains gives you a clearer picture than the unemployment rate (which only counts those…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 20 days agoUS Budget Deficit hits 8.1% of GDPThe only previous times budget deficits have been this high have been during severe crises - the World Wars and the Covid pandemic when the economy was shut down. Here is the…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 28 days agoUS Payrolls are dramatically revised downThey were marked down by a whopping 818,000 for the 12 months through March or around 68,000 less each month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does make regular revisions to…rose98734 (62)in #economy • last monthThe US govt deficit hit $1.5 trillion in the first 10 months of the 2024 fiscal yearThe good news is that this is an improvement on last year when the deficit was $1.6 trillion for the first 10 months of the 2023 fiscal year. The bad news is that high debt…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months agoUS CPI is still above targetUS CPI for the year ending June came in at 3%. down from 3.3% for May. Here is the chart: source The markets are excited because they think this means an interest rate…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 4 months agoIncomes are growing slower under Xi than any other Chinese leader in the last forty yearsHere is a graph with percentage changes in income under Chinese leaders since Deng Xiaoping: source The Chinese economy is obviously maturing, and that brings slower…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 4 months agoChina resumes outright selling of US TreasuriesChina has sold about $53 billion of US Treasuries in the first quarter of this year (2024). Belgium, often seen as a custodian of China’s holdings, also sold $22 billion of…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 4 months agoThis graph shows how out of control the US budget deficit isNormally, budget deficits widen during recessions or wars. In recessions, tax receipts are not coming in, and the government is spending more than usual on unemployment benefits.…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoWhy are French bond yields NOT surging?France's fiscal situation is deteriorating, with the French National Debt at 110.8% and the budget deficit 5.5% of GDP. But President Macron is loathe to do anything about it, as…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoAustralian CPI for the year ending March 2024 came in higher than expectedIt came in at 3.6% but the markets were expecting 3.4%. All the anglosphere countries are experiencing sticky inflation. Here is the chart: source Interest rates in…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoA look at the US budget deficitIt now stands at 5.93% of GDP. Here is the chart: source As you can see from the chart, the US government normally runs a big budget deficit in times of acute…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoFrance's debt-to-GDP continues to diverge from Germany'sHere is the chart: source As you can see from the chart, Germany handled the eurozone crisis of 2011-2013 much better than France did. They knuckled down and produced…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoCould Dollar strength help the Fed from keeping interest rate rises at bay?The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the USA came in at 3.5%, which persuaded market participants into thinking the Fed had to hike interest rates to force inflation…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoThis is how much gold the PBoC has boughtThe gold markets have finally caught up with how much gold China's central bank (the People's Bank of China or PBOC) has bought. Here is the chart: source As you can see…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoThe European Central Bank signals a rate cut in JuneThe European Central Bank met on Thursday, held interest rates at 4% and signalled a rate cut in June. When Christine Lagarde, who chairs the ECB, was asked if she was worried…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoThis is the reason Germany is deindustrialisingNatural gas prices in the USA are cheaper than in Europe. Here is the chart: source Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a strategic mistake; she ordered an…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoThe European Central Bank is under pressure to cut interest ratesThe European Central Bank meets later this week and is under pressure to signal that they will cut interest rates in their June meeting. The pressure is coming from the three big…rose98734 (62)in #economy • 5 months agoForeign Central Banks are switching to goldThe price of gold topped $2,300 per troy ounce. Who is buying? Answer: Central Banks. Here is the chart of central bank gold holdings compared to their holdings of US…