HUI - July 20, 2019 - Gold Miners Retrench - Gold and Silver Rally - A Bear Trap??????

Source Yahoo Finance

The HUI ended higher +1.39 points (+0.81%) with a CLOSE at 172.02. On the daily chart, the fast stochastic is rising with a positive crossover. The slow stochastic is flat to descending with a negative crossover and trying to enter oversold territory but not there just yet. MACD is flat with a negative crossover of a descending Signal line. Divergence is up and under the zero mark.

Source Yahoo Finance

GLD ended higher +$0.75 (+0.43%) with a CLOSE at 116.56. On the daily chart, the fast stochastic is rising with a positive crossover and no longer embedded in oversold territory. The slow stochastic is rising with a small positive crossover and remains embedded in oversold territory. MACD is slightly rising with a negative crossover of a flat Signal line. Divergence is up and under the zero mark.

Source Yahoo Finance

SLV ended higher +$0.17 (+1.18%) with a CLOSE at 14.59. On the daily chart, the fast stochastic is rising and no longer embedded in oversold territory. The slow stochastic is rising with a positive crossover but remains fully embedded in oversold territory. MACD is flat with a negative crossover of a flat Signal line. Divergence is up and below the zero mark.

The main purpose of this blog is to demonstrate that the HUI trades in an orderly fashion both in "price" and "time".

I publish daily target numbers well in advance to demonstrate the orderly fashion in which the HUI moves. If the HIGH, LOW or CLOSE is within 0.50 points of a daily target number it is a "hit".

I posted the following "bear" target numbers on May 22, 2018.

181.07
179.67
178.47
177.43
175.75
173.12
170.43
168.81

Yesterday I posted: "For tomorrow, look for the Bears to again press the HUI down to the 168.81 level. Additional Bear target levels below 168.81 are: 165.93; 163.11 and 161.71. If we get down here without any rally then on a longer term basis 147.00 is possibly in the cards."

The HUI opened with a gap higher at 172.33. The HIGH came in early at 173.15 (+0.03 points) for a "hit" of the Bear daily target level of 173.12. The Bears leapt into action and ground the HUI lower for most of the session the LOW coming in at 171.04. The HUI rallied in the final minutes of the session to CLOSE at 172.02.

The HIGH was only +0.03 points off of the Bear daily target level, not bad for a number first posted back here on May 22nd. Do you still believe in the random walk theory of the market?

For Monday look for the Bears to keep the HUI below this 173.12 level. For the Bulls the goal is to take out yesterday's high at 173.69 and regain 175.75.

I remain long the HUI, this is a core position. I am looking for a "summer rally". Does today start that rally? Did we get a double bottom? One thing is for sure, if the metals continue to rally then it would be a signal that this relentless down trend has halted, but that does not mean the rally has begun.

GLD - the fast stochastic is no longer embedded in oversold territory, which is a good sign for the bulls and potentially a very bad sign for the bears. If GLD rallies on Monday, the chart will show a classic "bear trap". Watch carefully the slow stochastic to see if it comes out of oversold territory.

SLV - looks the same as gld.

These are just my thoughts and observations, not advice etc.

Please share your thoughts, comments, upvote, follow.

Enjoy the weekend!

As for Monday, good luck and happy hunting!